Safe development paradox increases exposure to floods

Research suggests that flood protection to adapt to climate change has a negative impact on people, as people and economic activities are likely to be located in areas that are protected from flooding, leaving people at greater risk of flooding and facing more extreme consequences when floods do occur. This phenomenon is known as the ‘safe development paradox’.

Nº 11

California

some attempts made
past case
Region-1
Region-2
Region-3
Region-4
ongoing case
no attempts made

None

Safe development paradox increases exposure to floods

Research suggests that flood protection to adapt to climate change has a negative impact on people, as people and economic activities are likely to be located in areas that are protected from flooding, leaving people at greater risk of flooding and facing more extreme consequences when floods do occur. This phenomenon is known as the ‘safe development paradox’.

Following persistent rainfall in California in 2017, which led to the evacuation of 180,000 residents, the levee system was expanded and additional levees were built to cope with possible future flooding. As a result, the region has seen a significant increase in population due to a sense of security from the newly installed flood protection measures, which has resulted in more people being exposed to the potential consequences of flooding.

Hutton, N. S., Tobin, G. A., & Montz, B. E. (2019). The levee effect revisited: Processes and policies enabling development in Yuba County, California. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12(3), e12469. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12469

Haer, T., Husby, T. G., Botzen, W. W., & Aerts, J. C. (2020). The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union. Global Environmental Change, 60, 102009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102009